Israelis looking for answer to the question: Will an all-out war break out soon?
With the escalation of security tensions between the occupation and the forces hostile to it, its estimates increase that it could be subjected to a joint attack. At the same time, it is believed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will take an adventurous step to silence the internal protests, although he showed caution in the past.
Recently, some Israeli politicians have been publishing exaggerated estimates and fueling internal fears, and each of them has his own motives for increasing the level of anxiety.
Ron Ben-Yishai, a military expert for the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, said, “The frequently asked question is: Will there soon be an all-out war?” Who has achieved such a possibility these days, which calls for analyzing where this phenomenon appeared, and where it originated, and getting acquainted with the facts on the ground.
He added, “The answer to this serious question requires a determination of the fact that the Israeli intelligence services do not have any warning or specific information that indicates a plan, planning, or preparations by the main and dangerous enemies to jointly launch a surprise attack on all fronts at the same time, even though Iran and Hezbollah And the Palestinian organizations want to implement it, out of their desire to take advantage of what they see as a one-time opportunity.
He pointed out that “this opportunity that Israel’s enemies see is not repeated. It is represented by the unprecedented weakness in the divided Israeli society, the division in the army due to the refusal of military service, the military retreat of the United States, the loss of its interest in the Middle East, and the failure of the Arab-Israeli axis that Washington tried to establish in the Gulf.” Against Iran, because of the right-wing government in Israel, and its stated policy towards the Palestinians and Al-Aqsa Mosque.”
He explained, “Despite all these facts, all these threats to Israel are currently unable to translate them, with the exception of some rounds or days of battle, even though what happened in the current Ramadan is no different from what happened in previous Ramadans except for two factors, the first of which is the dangerous Megiddo operation, and the second An unusual firing of Hamas missiles from southern Lebanon towards occupied Palestine, in response to what Al-Aqsa Mosque witnessed, especially in terms of quantity, although it was short-range.
He pointed out that “all these details mean that in addition to improving coordination and timing between the Palestinian factions, especially Hamas and its agreement with Hezbollah, the talk is about an Iranian initiative to witness an unusual show or an operational military capability, although these parties are facing many difficulties at home, preventing them from fulfilling her warlike rhetoric.
He quoted “Israeli intelligence officials’ assessment that, after the month of Ramadan, the security atmosphere will calm down a bit, but the wave of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank will continue, and in Gaza and the north we will return, in one way or another, to the status quo since the beginning of the year, although the main risks now stem from two potential points of friction.” Deterioration and escalation, and their possibility of reaching an unexpected set of causes and circumstances in one of the sectors of Lebanon or Gaza, as well as armed attacks in the West Bank, which the army and Shin Bet will not be able to thwart.
He stressed that “Netanyahu will see an adventurous military step as the only option before him: either to silence the internal protests, so that he seeks to unite the Israelis in times of emergency, and freeze the judicial coup, or to force Benny Gantz and his party to join an emergency national unity government, although in the past he proved cautious in his decisions.” He may not initiate such a step, and if he does, he will face strong opposition from the Minister of War and army commanders, even though the Israeli public hears and reads that the Military Intelligence Service – AMAN believes that the possibility of war has increased in 2023, which is a worrying matter.
This conflicting Israeli estimate represents a model of pessimism that reaches the point of concern, which tends to have a negative impact on deterring the occupation and its ability to act in emergency situations, although the leaders of the government coalition publish threats and deliberately exaggerated estimates of the situation to quell the protests and suppress any Behavior against the actions of the government, even Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who shows unusual responsibility in the Likud scene, slightly exaggerates the immediacy and severity of the security danger, and perhaps he is doing so to pressure Netanyahu to stop his judicial coup.
On the other hand, the opposition leaders, led by Gantz and Yair Lapid, are sowing public anxiety and fueling fears in order to convince the swinging right-wing camp to pressure Netanyahu to stop the race for the legal revolution that is dividing and weakening Israelis, while the senior army and police chiefs are not making real efforts to calm down. The public’s fears, because the fear of a major escalation that could result in deaths, serves them in their efforts to curb Ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
